BOLD PREDICTIONS (AND OTHER DICKY THINGS)

Okay, I’m about to do something I normally wouldn’t, which is make a bold prediction about the 2006 Oscar. Here goes:

Based on the following, mildly compelling evidence—Best Picture awards from the Los Angeles Film Critics Circle, the New York Film Critics Circle, the Boston Film Critics Circle, the National Board of Review, and the most Golden Globe nominations for a motion picture, including Best Motion Picture (Drama)—I predict that Ang Lee’s “Brokeback Mountain” will, in fact, be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar come next January.

Yeah, I know I’m gambling with my reputation here, but that’s why Kenny Rogers wrote a song about me.

But what about Rob Marshall’s “Memoirs of a Geisha,” Steven Spielberg’s “Munich,” and Stephen Gaghan’s “Syriana,” three films that, just a few days ago, seemed like potential Oscar powerhouses? While they weren’t collectively ignored by the Foreign Press (Spielberg, in particular, received a Best Director’s nomination), none were among the five finalists for Best Picture—Drama (which were, incidentally, "Brokeback Mountain," "The Constant Gardener," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "A History of Violence," and "Match Point") or the five finalists for Best Picture—Musical or Comedy ("Walk the Line," "The Producers," "The Squid and the Whale," "Pride and Prejudice," and "Mrs. Henderson Presents"), announced this morning.

Have the Golden Globes, in effect, killed all three films’ hopes of a Best Picture Oscar nomination? I thought the best way to figure that out would be to look up the Academy voters’ choices for Best Picture over the last few years, and see which of those had also been Golden Globe nominees. This might have been a lot of work; luckily, imdb.com, like most other things on the Interweb, shares the same tagline as “Syriana:” Everything is connected.

2005
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Million Dollar Baby:” Yes
“The Aviator:” Yes
“Ray:” Yes
“Sideways:” Yes
“Finding Neverland:” Yes

2004
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“LotR: The Return of the King:” Yes
“Master and Commander:” Yes
“Lost in Translation:” Yes
“Mystic River:” Yes
“Seabiscuit:” Yes

2003
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Chicago:” Yes
“Gangs of New York:” Yes
“The Hours:” Yes
“The Pianist:” Yes
“LotR: The Two Towers:” Yes

2002
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“A Beautiful Mind:” Yes
“Gosford Park:” Yes
“In the Bedroom:” Yes
“LotR: The Fellowship of the Ring:” Yes
“Moulin Rouge!:” Yes

2001
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Gladiator:” Yes
“Chocolat:” Yes
“Traffic:” Yes
“Erin Brockovich:” Yes
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon:” Yes (Foreign Language Picture)

2000
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“American Beauty:” Yes
“The Cider House Rules:” No
“The Green Mile:” No
“The Insider:” Yes
“The Sixth Sense:” No

1999
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Shakespeare in Love:” Yes
“Saving Private Ryan:” Yes
“Elizabeth:” Yes
“The Thin Red Line:” No
“Life is Beautiful:” No

1998
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Titanic:” Yes
“As Good as It Gets:” Yes
“The Full Monty:” Yes
“Good Will Hunting:” Yes
“L.A. Confidential:” Yes

1997
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“The English Patient:” Yes
“Fargo:” Yes
“Secrets and Lies:” Yes
“Shine:” Yes
“Jerry Maguire:” Yes

1996
Oscar Best Picture nominee: Golden Globe Best Picture nominee?
“Braveheart:” Yes
“Apollo 13:” Yes
“Babe:” Yes
“Il Postino:” No
“Sense and Sensibility:” Yes

As the stats for the last ten years show, is it possible for the Academy to nominate one, two, even three films that were neither Golden Globe Best Picture—Drama nominees, nor Golden Globe Best Picture—Musical or Comedy nominees. However, for the last five years, it looks like the Academy has been letting the Foreign Press tell them what movies to go see. Will the trend continue into next January? Or will “Munich,” “Memoirs,” “Syriana” or another film catch fire, and somehow sneak into the pack?

And will “Brokeback Mountain” finally catch serious Oscar buzz by taking home the Lackawanna County Film Critics Prize?

Stay tuned!